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Is there a place for intuition in sports betting?
Whilst a betting strategy built solely around intuitive judgments is highly unlikely to be successful there is certainly a strong argument for intuitive judgments being applied to manipulated fixed odds betting models.
Imagine for some reason a model is suggesting a bettor should wager on Real Madrid in the match outlined above. By looking at the line a bettor should be able to see that there is a possible flaw in the model and could potentially refine the selections to ensure improved accuracy. By doing this the bettor is essentially applying his own intuition to the process.
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Equally, the data may flag up that the bettor’s intuitive judgment about the SAFE VIP PREDICTION TIPS is in fact wrong. Perhaps Barcelona has been very poor this season or has lost a range of key players. The bettor’s assumption that “Barcelona is a good team” may no longer apply.
“Gut (or intuition) is shorthand for many of the remarkable qualities of human cognition: an ability to rapidly spot patterns, make associations, combine a rich set of personal experiences and innumerable data points to form a judgment.”
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Removing the power of intuition from betting strategy entirely would eliminate a huge data source. Equally, to rely on intuition alone would be a very risky approach to betting as it is solely reliant on the accuracy of the bettor’s grasp of probabilities, which may well be less accurate than he assumes.
As with many topics, a combination of the two approaches is perhaps the strongest approach to forming a successful betting strategy.
Combining the intuitive talent of the sports betting equivalent of Vic Braden with the breadth available to a good data-led model would be the ideal scenario. They could both benefit from the insight of the other. It would, therefore, seem churlish then for bettors to write off intuition entirely.
With West Ham, on one end of the scale, and Liverpool and Chelsea on the other, this article measures the extent of the surprise factor for each EPL team by applying a technique used to evaluate the accuracy of weather predictions.
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The current Premiership table leads to a couple of unexpected outcomes – Leicester in the third position, West Ham in the top six, and Chelsea in a part of the table where you have to scroll down.
One of the best available predictors for an outcome, especially if you believe in efficient markets, is betting odds fixed matches 1×2. Hence, teams that perform differently than was predicted are either over-performers or under-performers.
To measure the extent to which each team deviates from what the odds imply, we use a Brier Score per team. The Brier Score, as originally introduced in 1950, is a measure of the effectiveness of weather predictions.
Calculating the SAFE VIP PREDICTION TIPS
As probabilities implied by betting markets add up to more than 100%, we first adjust the odds pro-rata to determine the probabilities of each outcome for a match. Our paid MANIPULATED FIXED MATCHES ensure users get excellent outcomes.
The Brier Score per match is the sum of the square difference of the probability and actual results. Let’s take the match Liverpool vs Crystal Palace on 8th November. Our website odds implied a 58.3% chance of Liverpool to win and a 24.5% chance of draw. The outcome was a Crystal Palace win at a predicted possibility of just 17.1%.
The probabilities for Win:Draw:Loss were 0.583:0.245:0.171 with the actual result being 0:0:1, where one stands for the actual outcome. The differences are 0.583:0.245:0.829. The sum of the square differences are 0.5832 + 0.2452 + 0.8292 = 1.0875. This is the Brier Score for this match.
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The Brier score can range from 0, if odds guessed the outcome directly by stating there is 100% chance of only one outcome to be correct, to 2, if odds implied that one outcome is certain and that did not occur.
However, if we had to just throw outcomes at random and say that a home win, draw or away win are equally likely, then our Brier score would be 0.667, irrespective of the outcome.
The table below shows the Brier score per team in the Premiership. What we note is that some of the surprises are actually vindicated in the stats: Chelsea, Liverpool and West Ham are not performing as expected while for Arsenal and Manchester City it is business as usual.
Football is unpredictable
Football fixed matches betting odds are unpredictable. That Soccer fixed match 1×2 bets gives the sport its appeal inspires the fans and also gives betting punters a headache week in, week out. Using a verification measure like the Brier Score gives betters a more systematic point of view as to what is happening in the league right now.
However, should it be the only measure use, it will still be limit by the beautiful fact that football halftime fulltime fixed matches is a sport play by, organize by, coach by and watch by human beings. As such, always price in the possibility of a process error.
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